Why Stagflation Matters Now – and How Equipment Finance Leaders Can Prepare 

Is stagflation back on the table? In a new expert article published by Equipment Finance Advisor, Valerie L. Gerard, co-CEO of The Alta Group, explores the warning signs that stagflation—a combination of high inflation, slow growth, and rising unemployment—may be more than a historical concern. The article outlines why this “triple threat nobody wants” has become a real possibility in 2025. 

“Six months ago, as Alta’s advisors collaborated to write our 2025 Insights report on the trends and dynamics that will impact the equipment finance industry in the year ahead, we were thinking broadly across a range of economic scenarios,” Gerard writes. “While the concept of stagflation was on our radar screen at that time, the probability level was too low to call it out directly.” 

But Gerard explains that economic volatility has moved it “from the ‘probably not’ category into the realm of ‘possibly so.'” Drawing on recent warnings from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, Gerard connects the dots between today’s economic signals and conditions not seen since the 1970s. 

“Unfortunately, there isn’t a ‘Stagflation Index’ to guide us through these turbulent economic times,” Gerard writes. However, she advises paying attention to the “Misery Index,” which adds the U.S. inflation rate and unemployment rate together, to get a pulse on where things stand. That index surged to 22% in 1980. In May 2025, it stood at 6.6%, but the impact of volatile trade policy had not yet shown up in the index components. The article also advises watching how other economic indicators, including the Consumer Price Index, GDP growth projections, unemployment, ratings outlooks, and bond yields, move in relation to one another. 

Stagflation’s Impact on Equipment Finance 

When stagflation hit the markets in the 1970s and 1980s, equipment leasing firms had to contend with plummeting demand for new equipment, soaring borrowing costs, weakening credit, and declining residual values. 

“Equipment finance firms with agile underwriting and adaptive pricing will navigate stagflation more resiliently,” Gerard writes. The article offers a set of proactive strategies to protect portfolios and prepare for an uncertain economic environment, including: 

• Stress-testing portfolios across inflation and rate scenarios 
• Re-evaluating residual values and lease terms 
• Diversifying funding sources 
• Indexing or adjusting lease rates to inflation 

“This is a good time to ensure you are prepared for anything,” Gerard advises. 

Read the full article. 

If your organization is rethinking its strategy in response to economic uncertainty, Alta’s advisors are ready to help. Our team brings decades of insight across portfolio management, risk, and competitive alignment—so you can stay focused on growth, even in turbulent times. 

Contact us today to discuss how your business can stay ahead of the curve.